The United States is heading into the 2024 presidential election with one of the most evenly split electorates in the past two decades, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. The research examined voter identification across different demographics, comparing data from 1996 to new data from 2023. In 1994, 51% of Americans identified with the Republican Party, while 47% identified as Democrats. The tables turned over the years, with 5% more Americans identifying as Democrats in 2020. However, the most recent Pew results from 2023 reveal a significant shift, with 49% of voters identifying as Democrat or leaning Democrat, compared to 48% identifying as Republican or leaning Republican.
While Democrats remain the party of choice for most Hispanic, Black, and Asian voters, there has been a significant shift in support among non-Hispanic White Democratic voters. Party support among this demographic has dropped 21 percentage points since 1996, falling from 77% to 56% in 2023. Recent polls have shown that Democratic support among minority voters is shrinking, with a Gallup poll finding that 19% of Black adults identify as lean Republican or Republican, compared to 66% identifying as Democrat or lean Democrat, the smallest percentage recorded since 1999.
Among different age groups, Democrats maintain their advantage among young voters, while the majority of older individuals are Republican-affiliated. Republicans have made gains among Hispanic voters in recent years, tripling their affiliation with this demographic from 3% to 9% over the past two decades. Rural voters also appear to be shifting towards the GOP, with the party holding a 25-point advantage over Democrats, 60% to 35%, after the parties were evenly split among voters in 2008.
Despite their advantage, Democrats are facing criticism from undecided battleground voters, particularly on economic issues. Recent polls have shown dissatisfaction with the Biden administration’s handling of the economy. As President Biden and former President Donald Trump gear up for a potential rematch in the upcoming presidential election in November, Pew’s analysis reveals a potential shift in the political landscape that could be reflected in the voting booth this fall.
The Pew Research Center conducted surveys via telephone from 1994 to 2018, and then via online surveys from 2019 to 2023 among registered voters. The data highlights the evolving political landscape in America, with party affiliation shifting among different demographics. As the country prepares for the 2024 presidential election, the split in party identification and the changing support among various voter groups indicate a potentially contentious and closely contested race ahead.
