Senate primaries are underway, and the matchups in key races that will determine the balance of power in the chamber are relatively settled. The general election is effectively here, leading to changes in the top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip. Only Ohio and Texas have held primaries so far, with nominating contests between April and August shaping the other races. The top three races on the list, West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio, remain the most likely to flip due to being Democratic-held seats in states that twice backed Donald Trump.
The presidential race has settled into a general election tempo, with both Trump and President Joe Biden securing enough delegates to become their parties’ presumptive nominees. The changes in the Senate rankings come in battleground states that Biden narrowly won over Trump and are likely to see a close race again this year. While Republicans have a decent shot at flipping Senate seats in states like Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, their chances are stronger in states like West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio.
Pennsylvania drops down to No. 6 on the list, with Nevada moving up two spots. Recent primary elections, including protest votes against Trump, have raised concerns in Michigan and Wisconsin. The Senate map favors the GOP, but Democrats believe their incumbents can overperform Biden. Republicans secured a win with Maryland entering the list, marking nine of the top 10 seats to flip currently held by Democrats.
In West Virginia, Governor Jim Justice is the front-runner for the Republican nomination for the Senate seat, while Democrat Don Blankenship is vying for the nomination on the Democratic side. In Montana, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester faces a tough race against Republican Tim Sheehy, with both candidates trying to set themselves apart on issues like border security and ranching credentials.
In Ohio, Sen. Sherrod Brown faces a challenge from Republican Bernie Moreno, with Brown emphasizing his legislative work and bipartisan record while Moreno tries to appeal to Trump supporters. In Nevada, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen faces a tough battle to hold her seat against Republican Sam Brown, with abortion rights becoming a central issue in the race.
In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey is likely to face a challenge from Republican Dave McCormick, with both candidates already engaging in a heated campaign. Michigan faces a closely contested Senate race, with Elissa Slotkin likely to run against Mike Rogers, a former congressman, in a state that has shown support for Trump. In Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin faces a challenge from Eric Hovde, who has not yet shaken up the rankings despite his considerable wealth and efforts to connect with voters.
Maryland makes its debut on the list, with former Gov. Larry Hogan entering the race against the current Democratic Senator, Ben Cardin. Despite the blue leaning of the state, Hogan has a chance to make the race competitive. Lastly, in Texas, Democratic Rep. Colin Allred is challenging Sen. Ted Cruz, with Democrats feeling confident in Allred’s ability to unseat Cruz. Republicans are prepared for the challenge, indicating a competitive race ahead.
