President Joe Biden is navigating a challenging moment in his relationship with his base over Israel’s war in Gaza, which is deepening the partisan divide in the US regarding support for Israel. Over the past two decades, Democratic sympathies have shifted away from Israel and towards the Palestinians, while Republican support for Israel has increased. This widening gap between the parties signals the breakdown of the bipartisan consensus that traditionally supported Israel in US politics. Netanyahu’s conservative policies and alignment with the Republican Party have played a significant role in this shift.
The partisan split on Israel among American voters has been widening for years, with Republicans increasingly supporting Israel and Democrats showing more sympathy for the Palestinians. This trend has been exacerbated by the recent conflict in Gaza, which has hardened the divide. While Democratic voters are moving towards a more critical stance on Israel, Democratic elected officials, influenced in part by lobbying groups like AIPAC, have been more supportive of Israel. Biden, who has a deep personal bond with Israel, has faced criticism for his handling of the conflict.
Biden’s reluctance to penalize Israel for its conduct in the war reflects his belief that maintaining a strong relationship with Israel is essential for achieving regional goals. Despite growing opposition to the war among Democrats, Biden’s allies argue that most Americans prioritize other issues over the conflict in Gaza. However, as the war continues and protests mount, the Democratic Party’s center of gravity is shifting away from instinctive support for Israel, particularly among younger Democrats.
Ambitious mid-career Democrats are increasingly critical of Israel’s actions in the war, indicating a potential shift in the party’s stance on the issue. Biden faces pressure from within his party to address Israel’s use of US weapons and cooperation with international aid, with some Democrats calling for penalties against Israel. A ceasefire could temporarily ease tensions, but a potential ground invasion in Gaza could reignite backlash against Israel and further strain the US-Israel relationship.
The widening partisan divide over Israel could potentially narrow if Israel elects a more centrist government in the future, but the growing alienation among Democratic voters, especially younger ones, suggests that Democratic elected officials will face increasing pressure to distance themselves from Israel. Biden’s handling of the conflict and his continued support for Israel will be closely watched by Democratic critics, raising questions about the future of bipartisan support for Israel in the US.
