Researchers at Hokkaido University, in collaboration with colleagues at the University of Tokyo and Kyushu University, have conducted global climate modeling to assess the impacts of increasing wildfires in Siberia on various aspects of the environment and society in East Asia and across the northern hemisphere. Their study, published in the journal Earth’s Future, indicates significant effects on climate, air quality, health, and economies under extreme wildfire scenarios.
The research used global numerical simulation experiments to evaluate the consequences of intensified wildfires in Siberia on air quality, premature mortality, and economy due to increased atmospheric aerosols. Associate Professor Teppei Yasunari of Hokkaido University notes that the modeling results indicate a cooling effect across the northern hemisphere and worsened air quality in downwind regions in the most extreme wildfire scenarios. Wildfires emit atmospheric aerosols, which can impact both air quality and climate.
The study focused on Siberian wildfires using the Japanese global climate modeling system MIROC5, along with other models such as the aerosol model SPRINTARS. By analyzing the coupled influences between the atmosphere and oceans, the researchers were able to simulate the atmospheric cooling effect caused by the reflection of sunlight from aerosol particles. This cooling effect may partially offset warming under near-future global warming conditions in areas affected by Siberian wildfires.
In the most extreme wildfire scenario, a significant impact will be the deterioration of air quality due to emissions of particulate and gas pollutants from the wildfires. This will not only affect local regions but also extend to large areas of East Asia downstream of the fires. The researchers emphasize the need for increased efforts to limit the consequences of Siberian wildfires in order to prevent excess deaths, illnesses, and economic losses, as these wildfires cover extensive areas that are difficult to prevent.
The modeling suggests that the direct impact of increased deaths from air pollution could result in health-related costs of around $10 billion annually. However, the study did not account for additional costs and secondary social effects resulting from non-fatal illnesses, such as workplace absences and reduced educational opportunities, which could further escalate the economic toll. The researchers stress the importance of refining global climate models to improve the accuracy of estimated impacts and better understand and mitigate the effects of wildfires.
In conclusion, the study highlights the broad impact of increased particulate matter from massive wildfires in Siberia on climate and air quality. The researchers stress the significance of these findings as global warming accelerates, emphasizing the critical need to address the effects of wildfires on various aspects of society. By gaining a better understanding of these impacts, efforts can be made to mitigate the consequences and protect public health and economies in the face of escalating wildfires in Siberia and beyond.
