New research from the University of East Anglia (UEA) indicates that current plans to remove CO2 from the atmosphere are not sufficient to meet the 1.5 ºC warming limit set by the Paris Agreement. The United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) has been monitoring the emissions gap since 2010, which is the disparity between countries’ climate commitments and what is needed to limit global warming to 1.5 ºC or below 2 ºC. The UNEP Emissions Gap Reports consistently show that more ambitious climate policies are required. This new study focuses on carbon dioxide removal (CDR), specifically the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. The research team, led by the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), emphasizes the need for increased ambition in scaling up carbon removal efforts.
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, highlights the importance of carbon removal methods in achieving net zero emissions and mitigating the impacts of climate change. According to the research, countries need to raise awareness, ambition, and action in scaling up CDR methods along with significant emissions reductions to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The analysis suggests that human-induced carbon removals could potentially increase by up to 0.5 gigatonnes of CO2 by 2030 and 1.9 gigatonnes by 2050 if national targets are fully implemented. However, a much larger increase of 5.1 gigatonnes is needed by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5 ºC, as outlined in the IPCC assessments.
While the focus scenario in the latest IPCC report calls for a rapid expansion of renewable energies and fossil fuel emission reductions, it also emphasizes the necessity of scaling up carbon removals. One alternative scenario suggests a reduction in global energy demand as a key component of climate protection strategy, leading to a more modest increase in carbon removals by 2050. The study raises concerns about the sustainability limits of scaling up carbon removals, including land use impacts on biodiversity and food security. Nonetheless, there is potential for designing fair and sustainable land management policies to address these challenges.
The research team also highlights the need to explore novel carbon removal options like air filter systems and enhanced rock weathering, which have not received adequate attention from policymakers. These innovative methods currently remove a negligible amount of CO2 compared to conventional options like afforestation. To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, these newer technologies must become more prevalent and could potentially surpass conventional options by 2030. The study notes that only a limited number of countries have detailed removal plans in their long-term emissions strategies, underscoring the need for a more comprehensive global approach to carbon removal.
As the world races to limit global warming to 1.5 ºC, the study underscores the urgency of rapid emissions reductions across all sectors to achieve this goal. While carbon removal efforts are essential, they cannot replace the need for immediate and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The researchers call for a more refined approach to calculating carbon removal needs and stress the importance of ongoing dialogue on the necessary scale of carbon removal to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. The study concludes that meeting the 1.5 ºC limit is contingent on swift action to reduce emissions and scale up carbon removal efforts across the globe.
