A new poll conducted by Fabrizio Ward & Impact Research for AARP Pennsylvania found that former President Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over President Biden in Pennsylvania. Trump received 49% support among likely voters in the state, compared to Biden’s 45%. Trump’s lead was even greater among voters aged 50 and older, with 52% support from that demographic compared to Biden’s 42%.
According to AARP Pennsylvania, voters aged 50 and older made up more than half of Pennsylvania’s electorate in 2020. Older voters play a critical role in elections, and their support is highly sought after by candidates. Issues such as Social Security, Medicare, and the cost of prescription drugs are important to these voters, with 80% stating that candidates’ positions on Social Security will influence their vote. 85% of respondents aged 50 and above said they were extremely motivated to vote in this election cycle.
President Biden has attempted to win over older voters by accusing Trump of planning cuts to Social Security and Medicare, despite denials from the former president. The trustees of both programs have warned of financial insolvency, with Social Security’s main trust fund projected to run out of money in 2033 and the Medicare trust fund in 2036. Trump currently leads Biden by an average of 1.6 percentage points in Pennsylvania, according to RealClearPolitics.
In addition to the presidential race, Pennsylvania is also home to a closely watched Senate race between incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. and Republican businessman David McCormick. While Casey leads McCormick among all likely voters, he narrowly trails him among voters aged 50 and older. The survey sampled 1,398 likely Pennsylvania voters, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points for the statewide sample and plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points for the oversample of voters aged 50 and above.
Overall, the poll reveals a competitive race in Pennsylvania between Trump and Biden, with Trump holding a narrow lead in the battleground state. The support of voters aged 50 and older is important in determining the outcome of the election, with issues such as Social Security, Medicare, and prescription drug costs playing a significant role in their voting decisions. As the election approaches, candidates will need to pay attention to the concerns and priorities of older voters in order to secure their support and win the state.
