The New York Times (NYSE: NYT) is set to report its Q1 2024 results on May 8, with little to no movement expected in its stock price. The company has been facing challenges in the digital advertising and print revenue sectors due to a tough macro environment, despite modest revenue growth and improved operating results since the pandemic. Subscription revenue is projected to rise 11% to 14% y-o-y, with total subscription revenue increasing 7% to 9%. However, total advertising revenues are expected to decline by mid-single digits, reflecting the ongoing low visibility in the advertising market.
Despite a volatile performance over the past three years, with returns of -7% in 2021, -33% in 2022, and 51% in 2023, NYT stock has seen little change, hovering around $45. The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 in 2021 and 2022 but outperformed in 2023. It has been difficult for individual stocks to consistently beat the S&P 500 in recent years, even for heavyweights in the Communication Services sector and megacap stars like Tesla, Microsoft, and Amazon. The Trefis High Quality Portfolio has consistently outperformed the S&P 500 each year over the same period, offering better returns with less risk.
Trefis estimates NYT’s Q1 2024 revenues to be around $592 million, in line with consensus estimates. Subscription revenues rose 4% y-o-y to $288.7 million in Q4 2023, while advertising revenue grew 8% to $164.1 million and other revenue increased by 10% to $81.7 million. The total digital-only average revenue per user was $9.24, up 3.5% y-o-y, with the company aiming to reach at least 15 million total subscribers by the end of 2027. For the full year 2024, NYT’s revenues are expected to grow 6% y-o-y to $2.6 billion.
NYT’s Q1 2024 earnings per share is expected to be 20 cents according to Trefis analysis, in line with consensus estimates. Adjusted earnings reached 70 cents per share in Q4 2023, up 19% y-o-y. With an EPS estimate of around $1.68 and a P/E multiple of 26.7x in fiscal 2024, NYT’s stock price is projected to be around $45, matching the current market price. It is important to consider how NYT’s stock compares to its peers in terms of key metrics, which can be found in the NYT Peers section to make more informed investment decisions.
