Small drones, particularly FPV kamikazes, have emerged as a significant weapon in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. These drones have proven to be effective in targeting tanks, artillery, infantry positions, and trucks from a significant distance. Both Ukraine and Russia have ramped up their production of FPVs, with Ukraine producing thousands each month and aiming for a million in 2024. However, Russia’s production efforts have not been as successful, despite their attempts to increase the production and supply of drones.
The Russian approach to FPV production differs from Ukraine’s decentralized efforts, with a focus on centralized production by the Sudoplatov Group. Russia has faced challenges in effectively utilizing their FPVs, with a decline in the number of successful attacks compared to Ukraine. The effectiveness of Russian FPV strikes has decreased since December 2023, while Ukraine continues to conduct more strikes with visible results on the battlefield. Russian site Lostarmor has reported a significant drop in successful FPV attacks against Ukrainian forces.
One key factor contributing to the decline in Russian FPV effectiveness is the success of Ukrainian electronic countermeasures against drones. Ukrainian jammers have been more effective in stopping Russian FPVs, while Russian jammers have proven less successful. The constant updating and upgrading of jammers and drone communications in Ukraine have given them an advantage in the electronic warfare domain. Russian FPV operators have also faced challenges with their own jammers interfering with drone operations, leading to a lack of coordination and effectiveness.
The Russian military’s reluctance to acknowledge issues with FPV operation and their lack of interaction between FPV groups and electronic warfare units has further hampered their effectiveness. The Russian military’s culture of covering up problems and lack of accountability has exacerbated the issues faced by FPV operators. The corruption and inefficiency within the Russian defense contractor system have also contributed to the decline in FPV effectiveness, in contrast to Ukraine’s more efficient approach to military procurement and innovation.
Ukraine’s thriving culture of free-enterprise innovation and competition within the drone ecosystem has allowed them to stay ahead in the small drone arms race. As Ukraine continues to produce FPVs at a rapid rate, they are steadily eroding Russian forces and impacting the battlefield. With a million drones potentially causing one casualty per attack, the increasing numbers of FPVs in Ukraine’s arsenal could have a significant impact on the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the effectiveness of Russian forces.
