Nearly two-thirds of voters believe that former President Trump will be found guilty on some charges in his unprecedented criminal trial in New York City. The trial marks the first in the nation’s history for a former or current president. Trump faces nearly three-dozen state felony charges related to falsifying business records in connection to hush-money payments made to Stormy Daniels during the 2016 election to keep quiet about an alleged affair. Despite denying the charges, the majority of voters predict Trump will be convicted on some counts.
As the trial continues, with Stormy Daniels testifying for the first time, a Suffolk University/USA Today national poll revealed that half of voters think Trump will be found guilty on some, but not all, counts. Fifteen percent predict he will be convicted on all counts, while 23% believe he will be found not guilty on all charges. The poll serves to set expectations for the trial’s outcome, though director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center David Paleologos noted that these expectations may differ from the jury’s verdict. Partisan differences were evident in views on the trial’s fairness, with most Democrats believing it to be fair and most Republicans disagreeing.
Despite his claims of unfair treatment, Trump has been repeatedly found in contempt for violating a gag order that prevents him from speaking out against jurors and witnesses. He has criticized prosecutors, the judge, and witnesses in the case. Judge Juan Merchan has warned about possible jail time if the violations persist. Trump and his defense team argue that the gag order violates his and his supporters’ First Amendment rights. The trial has diverted Trump’s attention from his campaign activities as he prepares for a potential rematch with President Biden in the 2024 election.
A Suffolk University poll conducted from April 30 to May 3, with 1,000 registered voters nationwide, showed that 44% of respondents feel the trial has not been fair, while 39% believe Trump is receiving a fair trial. Sixteen percent were undecided. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The differing perceptions of fairness among party lines reflect broader divisions over the trial. Despite the ongoing legal proceedings, Trump’s continued involvement and commentary on the trial have influenced public opinion and heightened tensions surrounding the case.
The trial’s outcome remains uncertain, with a significant portion of the public anticipating a conviction for some of the charges Trump faces. The Suffolk University/USA Today poll sheds light on the expectations and perceptions surrounding the trial, highlighting the partisan divides that characterize views on the fairness of the proceedings. Trump’s repeated clashes with the court and violations of the gag order have further fueled debate about the trial’s fairness and the implications for his future political endeavors. As the trial progresses, the public will closely monitor developments and await a verdict that could have significant ramifications for Trump and the broader political landscape.
