The conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement in Gaza has sparked unrest in Jordan, a stable Arab state with close ties to the United States. The intensifying demonstrations in Jordan demand the cancellation of key agreements with Israel due to the war. The security forces in Jordan have a history of suppressing dissent, but the protests have continued to grow in size and severity. Both internal and external forces are capitalizing on the popular outrage to push their agendas, creating unprecedented pressure in the kingdom.
Protests in Jordan calling for tougher measures against Israel began after a surprise attack led by Hamas in October 2023. Supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood are demanding the cancellation of the peace treaty with Israel and the closure of American bases in Jordan. The demonstrations have drawn participants from various political factions, including nationalists, leftists, and military veterans. The protests are fueled by popular anger over Israel’s actions against civilians in Gaza and the occupied territories.
Jordan’s geographic location and demographics make it susceptible to the effects of the crisis in Gaza. More than half of Jordan’s population has Palestinian roots, and the country hosts around 2 million Palestinian refugees. There is concern in Jordan about the possibility of Israel forcibly displacing Palestinians to Jordan. The country’s history includes past threats to its stability, including an armed uprising by Palestinian militias in 1970. More recent threats come from the possibility of a renewed attempt to establish a “substitute regime” for Palestinians in Jordan.
Jordan has maintained stability despite the conflict in Gaza and regional tensions. Protests criticizing the government’s policies have not targeted King Abdullah II, indicating a red line that protesters are hesitant to cross. The absence of Shiite Muslim-led movements aligned with Iran in Jordan has been a significant factor contributing to the country’s stability. However, recent threats from groups seeking to arm fighters in Jordan pose a new challenge to the country’s national security.
As the conflict in Gaza enters its half-year mark, the potential for Israel to destabilize Jordan remains a significant concern. Israel’s actions could undermine Jordan’s stability and inflame tensions between East Bank Jordanians and Jordanians of Palestinian origin. There is a fear that Israel may take steps to challenge Jordan’s role as the custodian of Islam’s third-holiest site in Jerusalem. A public confrontation with Islamist movements in Jordan is also a possibility, as the government criticizes Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. Amid mounting pressure, the future of Jordan’s stability and security remains uncertain.
