A poll conducted by Leger revealed that President Biden would not gain any additional support if former President Donald Trump is found guilty of a crime and imprisoned before the 2024 election. The nationwide survey showed that if Trump were to be found guilty of any of the 88 criminal charges he faces, he would lose his one-point lead over Biden. However, his support would shift to undecided voters rather than the incumbent. Only 37% of Americans would vote for Trump if he were found guilty and imprisoned, while 44% would vote for Biden if Trump were convicted but served no prison time.
Among Republicans, 15% would move to undecided if Trump is found guilty and imprisoned, while 6% said they would support Biden in that scenario. Additionally, 46% of US adults said they would vote for Trump if he were not found guilty of a crime, while 44% said they would vote for Biden. The survey also indicated that in a five-way race with independent and third-party candidates, Trump’s lead widens, receiving 41% of the vote compared to Biden’s 38%.
Trump currently faces multiple legal challenges, including a trial in Manhattan for business fraud and federal indictments related to alleged interference in the 2020 election and mishandling of national security documents. Despite these legal battles, only 21% of respondents reported closely monitoring the trial in Manhattan, with 42% watching for the outcome and 34% showing no interest. Trump’s approval ratings remain underwater, with 51% disapproving of his job as president compared to 38% who approve.
In a comparison with the polling firm’s March survey, Biden’s approval ratings have slightly improved, with 51% now disapproving and 38% approving of his presidency. Additionally, it was noted that 55% rated their household finances as good, and 56% of Americans were not concerned about losing their jobs in the next year. However, 58% of respondents believed the US was in an economic recession, compared to 25% who disagreed, and 17% who were unsure.
Overall, the Leger poll reflects that Trump’s legal troubles and potential convictions would not significantly alter the support he receives in a potential 2024 election. Biden’s approval ratings remain relatively stable, with a slight improvement from the previous survey. Household finances and job security were also noted as key concerns for respondents, with a majority viewing the US as being in an economic recession. The survey was conducted online in late April and polled 1,008 US adults with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.09%.
