Scientists have traditionally attributed earthquakes to the movement of tectonic plates and subsurface faults and fissures. However, recent research by MIT scientists suggests that certain weather events, such as heavy snowfall and rain, may also play a role in triggering earthquakes. The study focused on a series of ongoing earthquakes in Japan’s Noto Peninsula, where seismic activity was found to be synchronized with changes in underground pressure influenced by seasonal patterns of snowfall and precipitation.
The researchers analyzed seismic data from the region over an 11-year period and observed a shift in earthquake activity around late 2020, transitioning from sporadic events to a more intense and clustered pattern, signaling the beginning of an earthquake swarm. By examining seismic measurements and calculating seismic velocity between monitoring stations, the team identified a surprising pattern of synchronized changes in seismic velocity in 2020. These changes appeared to be linked to seasonal variations in snowfall and precipitation.
To further investigate the connection between seasonal precipitation and seismic activity, the researchers developed a hydromechanical model of the Noto Peninsula to simulate changes in pore pressure within the bedrock due to seasonal weather conditions. The model, which incorporated data on snow, rainfall, and sea-level changes, revealed a strong correlation between extreme snowfall events and the timing of earthquakes in the region. The team found that heavy snowfall could increase pore pressure and slow down seismic waves, potentially triggering earthquakes.
While plate tectonics remain the primary cause of earthquakes, the study suggests that climate conditions can influence the response of the solid Earth and play a role in earthquake activity. The researchers propose that with global warming leading to more extreme precipitation events, the climate’s impact on earthquakes could become more pronounced in the future. They emphasize the need to explore this link further and consider climate as a secondary controlling factor in earthquake occurrence.
Overall, the study provides valuable insights into the complex relationship between climate conditions and seismic activity. By demonstrating the influence of heavy snowfall and precipitation on earthquake swarms in Japan, the research highlights the need to consider a variety of factors when studying earthquake triggers. The findings could have implications for earthquake forecasting and risk assessment, particularly in regions prone to extreme weather events. Further research is needed to fully understand the mechanisms behind the climate-earthquake connection and its potential implications for seismic hazard mitigation.
