The study conducted by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) has found that primary health care, conditional cash transfers, and social pensions in Brazil have prevented 1.4 million deaths over the past two decades. By expanding these programs, an additional 1.3 million deaths and 6.6 million hospitalizations could be averted by 2030. This comes at a crucial time as the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened poverty and social inequalities worldwide, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
The concept of a polycrisis, where multiple crises interact to create a greater impact than the sum of their parts, is evident in the current global economic situation. The economic repercussions of the war in Ukraine and rising inflation are expected to push more people into poverty in the coming years, further exacerbating the health disparities in LMICs. Social programs like those implemented in Brazil have shown to mitigate the health consequences of economic crises, especially among vulnerable populations.
Brazil has been a leader in expanding its welfare state over the past two decades, with the implementation of a public universal healthcare system, conditional cash transfer programs for the poorest families, and social pensions for the elderly and disabled. These programs have been successful in reducing hospitalizations and deaths, particularly among children under five years of age and adults over 70. The study conducted by ISGlobal evaluated the combined effect of these programs over almost two decades and showed a significant reduction in overall hospitalization and mortality rates.
The research team used data from 2,548 Brazilian municipalities to show the impact of high coverage of these programs on preventing deaths. They have also forecasted that extending these programs to the newly poor and vulnerable populations could prevent up to 1.3 million additional deaths by 2030. The study highlights the importance of expanding these programs as a viable strategy to mitigate the health impact of the current global polycrisis.
Co-first author of the study, Daniella Cavalcanti, emphasizes that implementing fiscal austerity measures would only result in a large number of preventable deaths. It is clear from the research findings that expanding primary health care, conditional cash transfers, and social pensions is essential in addressing the health disparities exacerbated by the current global crises. By investing in these programs, countries can prevent unnecessary deaths and hospitalizations, particularly among the most vulnerable populations in LMICs.
