Russian President Vladimir Putin recently made a public gesture intended to punish Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu for his perceived failure to achieve the Kremlin’s military goals in Ukraine, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The ISW suggested that Putin may have held a publicized meeting with a known rival of Shoigu in an attempt to reduce the defense minister’s power. This move comes after the arrest of Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov on bribery charges in April, which was seen as a warning to Shoigu. Ivanov was considered to be one of Shoigu’s closest allies, and the two men had a history of working together.
In a recent meeting, Putin met with Alexei Dyumin, the governor of Russia’s Tula Oblast and an affiliate of the Wagner Group mercenaries. Dyumin discussed his region’s efforts to support Moscow’s war in Ukraine, which includes equipping military units, opening a training center for drone operators, and manufacturing weapons. Yevgeny Prigozhin, former leader of the Wagner Group, had criticized Shoigu before leading a mutiny against Moscow in June. Dyumin, who supported Prigozhin before his death, had reportedly attempted to facilitate firings within the Russian Ministry of Defense and may have aimed to replace Shoigu. The ISW believes that Dyumin’s meeting with Putin was an attempt to gain the president’s favor and possibly a punishment for Shoigu’s perceived failure.
The ISW noted that the meeting between Putin and Dyumin generated significant discourse within the Russian information space, particularly as it occurred between Ivanov’s arrest and an expected government reshuffle following Putin’s presidential inauguration. There is speculation that Putin may appoint Dyumin to a role in the defense industry, which could indicate that the president played a key role in Ivanov’s arrest. David Silbey, an associate professor of history at Cornell University, believes that Putin’s move to arrest Ivanov sends a message to Shoigu that he could be next or may suddenly retire. This suggests a power struggle within the Russian military and political spheres.
Overall, the recent developments in the relationship between Putin, Shoigu, and Dyumin reflect potential rifts within the Russian leadership regarding military strategy in Ukraine. Putin’s publicized meeting with Dyumin, a known challenger to Shoigu’s power, indicates a possible reorganization or reshuffling of key positions within the defense sector. The arrest of Ivanov, a close ally of Shoigu, also contributes to the speculation that Putin is exerting his authority over the defense ministry. These actions could have implications for Russia’s military operations in Ukraine and may signal a shift in leadership dynamics within the Russian government.
