The Republican Party is favored to take control of the Senate in the November elections, according to odds from a leading bookmaker. The odds of the GOP gaining Senate control are 2/5, while the odds of Democrats retaining control are 2/1. This comes six months before key elections that will determine control of the White House, Senate, and House. Currently, there are 51 Senators aligned with the Democrats, including three independents, compared to 49 Republicans. The GOP hopes to win back control after failing to do so in the previous elections in 2022.
In the presidential race, former President Donald Trump is narrowly ahead of President Joe Biden according to Betfair odds. Trump, the presumptive Republican candidate, has odds of 6/5, while Biden, the incumbent, has odds of 7/5. While Betfair favors Trump to win the Electoral College, they suggest that Biden is on track to win the popular vote with odds of 2/5 against the Republican’s 4/1. Despite legal issues, Trump remains the punters’ favorite to win the White House, while Biden closely follows behind in the odds.
Recent polling showed a potential setback for Republican hopes of retaking the Senate, as Democrats were ahead in key states such as Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego led Trump-aligned Republican Kari Lake, while in Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin led former House GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey was ahead of Republican challenger Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania. However, in Texas, Sen. Ted Cruz was on track to defeat Democratic Rep. Colin Allred and secure reelection, according to a recent survey.
Democrats won back control of the Senate in 2020, gaining three seats and winning the vice presidency for the tiebreaking vote. They increased their seats by one in the 2022 midterm elections. Despite a favorable map for Republicans, recent polling shows a mixed picture for both parties in key Senate races. The outcome of the November elections will be crucial for determining control of the Senate, as well as the White House and House of Representatives. Both parties are gearing up for a closely contested race and are closely monitoring the odds and polling data to gauge their chances of success.
