The Senate election in Wisconsin between Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican businessman Eric Hovde is considered one of the most important races in November, with a new poll showing likely voters split on who they will support. The Marquette University poll released on Wednesday revealed a dead heat, with 50 percent of likely voters planning to vote for Baldwin and 50 percent supporting Hovde. Wisconsin is a crucial battleground state that has been evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, with former President Donald Trump narrowly carrying it in 2016 and President Joe Biden flipping it back to Democrats in 2020 by a slim margin.
The upcoming election is expected to be highly competitive, and the Senate race could play a significant role in determining which party holds the chamber in 2025. Baldwin has previously performed well in elections, winning by over 10 points in 2018, but polls suggest that the race in 2024 will be more closely contested. While Baldwin held an advantage among registered voters, winning 52 to 47, the latest poll among likely voters was tied. Baldwin won support from 8 percent of Republicans, while Hovde garnered 2 percent of Democrats. Independents leaned towards Baldwin by a margin of 32-26.
The poll was conducted among 814 registered voters in Wisconsin from April 3 to 10, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. Among the 736 likely voters surveyed, the margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points. The Hovde campaign welcomed the results, characterizing Baldwin as a “rubber stamp for the Biden agenda” and emphasizing that Wisconsin residents are ready for change. The Cook Political report rates the election as “Lean Democrat,” indicating that it is a competitive race where one party has an advantage.
In terms of fundraising during the first quarter of 2024, Baldwin surpassed Hovde. Federal Election Commission filings showed that Baldwin’s campaign raised approximately $4.7 million, with around $10 million on hand, while Hovde raised an estimated $1 million and has $5.3 million on hand. Hovde also loaned his campaign an additional $8 million of his own money. An Emerson College poll from March showed Baldwin with a slight lead, with 45 percent of respondents supporting her compared to 42 percent supporting Hovde. Another Emerson College poll from February found Baldwin with 46 percent support compared to Hovde’s 39 percent.
The Wisconsin Senate race between Baldwin and Hovde is critical in the context of the national political landscape. With Wisconsin being a key battleground state that has shifted between parties in recent presidential elections, the outcome of this race could have implications for control of the Senate. Baldwin’s past electoral successes and fundraising advantages, coupled with Hovde’s campaign statements emphasizing change, point to a closely contested and crucial race in November. It remains to be seen how the candidates will continue to appeal to voters and differentiate themselves in the run-up to the election.
