President Biden and former President Donald Trump are currently in a statistical tie as they prepare for their first debate, with Biden at 48% support and Trump at 47%. Despite Biden’s lead, history suggests the Electoral College margin may be tight enough for Trump to secure a victory, similar to the 2016 election where Trump won despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton. Third-party candidates seem to take a larger portion of support from Trump than from Biden, causing both candidates to see a decrease in their overall support.
In a five-way matchup including independent and Green Party candidates, Biden’s support drops to 41% while Trump falls to 38%. Among the additional candidates, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. leads with 14% support. The poll also shows that 19% of voters are considering changing their minds about who to support before the election, with some of those voters being more likely to switch from Biden to another candidate. Support for RFK Jr. appears to be the most susceptible to changes in voters’ preferences.
The poll also reveals that Biden and Trump are nearly tied when it comes to favorability, with both candidates receiving unfavorable ratings from 54% of respondents. Biden’s approval rating has slightly improved since the previous poll, but he remains underwater with a 39% approval rating and 56% disapproval rating. The upcoming debate between Biden and Trump, as well as Trump’s ongoing trial regarding hush money in Manhattan, are of high interest to voters with 72% likely to watch the debate and 70% following Trump’s trial closely.
Over 60% of respondents believe that the charges brought against Trump by District Attorney Alvin Bragg are either very serious or somewhat serious, with 46% saying they believe Trump did something illegal in the case. However, 50% believe Trump only did something unethical but not illegal or did nothing wrong at all. Despite this, only 6% of Trump supporters said a conviction would make them less likely to vote for him, with 24% saying they would be more likely to vote for him in that case. Overall, the results of the trial do not seem to have a significant impact on voters’ opinions.
The poll surveyed 1,374 registered voters nationwide and took place between May 16-20, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.6 percentage points. With the upcoming debate between Biden and Trump, as well as the ongoing trial involving Trump’s business practices, voters continue to show interest in following these events closely to inform their decisions leading up to the election. As the race between Biden and Trump remains close, the potential for third-party candidates to influence the final outcome is an important factor to consider in understanding voter preferences and behavior.
