The folk wisdom surrounding Donald Trump in American politics has been one of invulnerability to traditional scandal. He has been able to deflect criticism and scandal with ease, drawing strength from the efforts to hold him accountable. This view was evident in his first impeachment and again in his second impeachment, where Trump was acquitted. However, he is currently on trial for falsifying business records in an attempt to suppress knowledge of his affair with Stormy Daniels. If convicted on any of the 34 felony counts, Trump could face up to four years in prison, making him the first former president in American history to be criminally prosecuted.
Despite his efforts to summon grass-roots support, Trump has not been able to rally significant public backing during his trial. Majorities of Americans believe that the trial and investigations into Trump’s conduct are fair, with many believing that if he broke the law, he should be prosecuted and sentenced to prison. National polling shows a steady head-to-head between Trump and President Biden, with no sign that the trial has strengthened Trump’s political prospects. Even in the Republican primaries, there is no evidence that the trial has rallied dissident Republicans to support Trump over other candidates.
It is clear that Trump is not benefited by attempts to hold him accountable or limit his behavior. Accountability does not translate into political action for him, and the trial has not proven to be a public relations asset. Despite efforts to complicate Trump’s image and attribute deeper meaning to his actions, he is ultimately a bully who wilts in the face of opposition. The trial and potential conviction are unlikely to play out any differently than his previous impeachments, as there is no indication that he gains strength from attempts to restrict his behavior.
The lack of unwavering support for Trump during his trial demonstrates that the folk wisdom around his invulnerability to scandal may not hold true in this case. Despite previous instances where he emerged unscathed from controversy, the current legal proceedings could have a lasting impact on his political career. With public sentiment leaning towards fair treatment and accountability for Trump’s actions, there is a growing sense that he may not be able to evade consequences this time. As the trial unfolds, it becomes increasingly clear that Trump’s aura of invincibility may be fading, and the volatile nature of American politics may be moving in a new direction.
