In this content, the author discusses Israel’s operation in Rafah in Gaza, which appears to be a microcosm of its broader fight against Hamas. The operation is seen as an attempt to achieve tactical objectives rather than a clear strategic goal. It involves taking control of the Rafah crossing to Egypt, with the aim of stopping arms smuggling and weakening Hamas. However, there are concerns that the operation may backfire due to various risks and challenges it presents.
One major risk is the strain on Israeli-Egyptian relations, as Egypt fears the operation could lead to a refugee crisis in Sinai. Additionally, the humanitarian situation in Gaza has worsened, with thousands of people being evacuated and limited aid access due to the closing of the Rafah crossing. Without a realistic post-war plan for Gaza, any military successes in Rafah may be short-lived, as seen in the resurgence of Hamas in the north of the Strip.
Furthermore, the operation could potentially harden Hamas’s positions and lead to increased international condemnation of Israel, putting pressure on the country to agree to a ceasefire under unfavorable conditions. There are concerns that the operation may escalate into a full invasion, causing more destruction and casualties. Israel is also facing diplomatic challenges on multiple fronts, including a possible U.N. vote on Palestinian statehood and international legal action against top officials.
The author suggests that the Rafah operation may primarily benefit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been under pressure to deliver on his promises of victory over Hamas. However, there are concerns that Netanyahu’s personal interests may conflict with the interests of the country, as there are suspicions that he may be prolonging the conflict for political reasons. The success of the operation ultimately depends on its limited scope and its ability to link military actions to political aims, offering a nonviolent alternative to Hamas in the long term.
In conclusion, the author emphasizes the importance of having a clear vision for the future of Gaza and ensuring that the Rafah operation serves larger political goals rather than being an end in itself. It is essential to prevent the operation from becoming a tactical failure and to avoid escalating the conflict into a full-scale invasion. By keeping the operation limited and focused on achieving political aims, Israel may have a better chance of finding a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Gaza.
