In February, there was a debate about whether Joe Biden should step aside due to his age and potential weaknesses in a matchup against Donald Trump. Notable voices, including Nate Silver and Ezra Klein, suggested that Biden should consider withdrawing from the race. The special counsel Robert Hur’s report, which indicated memory problems for Trump, added to the discussion. Despite the initial concerns, the calls for Biden to step aside quieted after he gave a passable State of the Union address and his poll numbers slightly improved, shifting the focus away from the idea of him withdrawing from the race.
As May approaches and the election draws closer, Biden is still slightly behind in national polling and trails Trump in swing states that are crucial for winning the Electoral College. The gap between the two candidates is narrow, with Biden needing to make up just a few points to pull ahead. The Democratic response to this consistency ranges from unwarranted confidence in Trump’s lead being unsustainable to unwarranted fatalism about the situation. There is a belief that Biden should stick to his current approach to policy and politics and that any deviation would be unnecessary.
An alternative view of Biden’s situation suggests that if a candidate consistently beats Trump in the polls, they should focus on campaign fundamentals, get-out-the-vote efforts, and projecting normalcy. However, if a candidate is losing to Trump, they need to formulate a strategy that addresses the abnormality of Trump and be willing to break the normal rules of politics. The Biden campaign is criticized for running as though they are protecting a lead that Biden doesn’t have and refusing to make necessary changes to address the current challenges.
Suggestions have been made for potential ticket shake-ups, such as replacing Kamala Harris with a more reassuring vice-presidential candidate, and reconsidering the administration’s progressive policies. Despite the potential for Biden to win the election through strategic moves and external factors, it is important to have a reality check about the current state of the campaign. As Biden continues to trail Trump in key states and the gap remains narrow, there is a need for a reassessment of the campaign strategy to avoid a glide towards defeat.
Overall, there is ongoing uncertainty about Biden’s ability to secure victory in the upcoming election. While the gap between Trump and Biden is narrow, and there are potential opportunities for Biden to gain momentum and shift the tide in his favor, there is a need for a more proactive and strategic approach to address the challenges posed by Trump’s incumbency and appeal to voters in swing states. The current approach of the Biden campaign, based on maintaining consistency and sticking to existing policies, may not be sufficient to secure victory in the face of a competitive and unpredictable electoral landscape.
