President Biden recently threw a lavish state dinner in honor of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan, featuring celebrities such as Jeff Bezos and entertainment from Paul Simon. The event was part of a broader effort to showcase the renewed U.S.-Japan relationship and the evolving security alliances in Asia. The following day, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines joined U.S. and Japanese leaders for a trilateral security partnership announcement aimed at addressing China’s rise as a strategic challenge. The recent mobilization of allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific region is clearly a response to China’s aggressive behavior and growing military capabilities.
The series of multilateral security arrangements that the United States has been building across Asia and the Pacific in recent years are primarily motivated by concerns over China. Initiatives like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) involving the United States, Japan, Australia, and India, as well as partnerships like AUKUS and alliances between the United States, Japan, and South Korea, are viewed by China as part of a Washington-led effort to contain its influence. While these alliances don’t equate to a collective defense pact like NATO, China will likely interpret them as threatening its interests, potentially leading to further military buildup and aggressiveness in the region.
The proliferation of security partnerships in the Asia-Pacific region could result in deepening divisions and a dangerous arms race, increasing the risk of a regional conflict triggered by a political incident or military accident. To prevent such a scenario, the U.S. and its allies must prioritize diplomacy with China alongside military deterrence. Establishing crisis prevention and management dialogues involving civilian and military officials from all parties is crucial. Avoiding actions that escalate tensions, particularly in the Taiwan Strait, and working towards mutual reassurances and cooperation with China on various security issues are key steps towards regional stability.
It’s important for the United States and Japan to reaffirm their commitments on the China-Taiwan dispute and resist provocative measures that could further inflame tensions. Tokyo should focus on enhancing its own defense capabilities while Washington and its allies should adopt a more positive approach towards China, aiming for cooperation on shared security challenges and global issues. Encouraging China to moderate its coercive behavior in maritime disputes through enhanced dialogue and diplomatic efforts is essential in preventing further escalation of tensions and potential conflict in the region.
Both China and the United States share a common interest in avoiding a crisis and conflict in the region. By adopting new diplomatic strategies and fostering mutual cooperation rather than relying solely on military deterrence, there is a possibility of steering the world away from disaster. Building trust and finding ways to work together on critical issues such as cyberattacks, sea lanes defense, climate change, and pandemic response could provide a path towards a more stable and secure Asia-Pacific region. While the current state of suspicion between Beijing and Washington presents significant challenges, engaging in meaningful dialogue and cooperation remains essential for regional peace and stability.
