Republican pollsters, strategists, and consultants in California believe that demographic changes and new efforts to reach voters of color have shifted the balance of power in their favor. They point to Representative David Valadao’s close victory in 2020, as well as wins by minority candidates like Representatives Young Kim and Michelle Steel in the same year as evidence of this shift. Some argue that the presidential race could also inflate turnout among Republicans, potentially helping candidates like Valadao. Registration records show a net gain of several thousand Republican voters in the Central Valley districts represented by Valadao and Duarte, exceeding the narrow margin of victory in the 2020 races.
Republican campaign consultant Cathy Abernathy predicts that Valadao will win reelection, attributing his potential victory to former President Trump’s presence on the ballot. Many are surprised by the trend of the Latino community in the Central Valley electing more conservative candidates, challenging the typical narrative that people of color are more progressive-minded. However, City Council member Rachel Hernandez, who is running for mayor, warns that this trend may not be irreversible, calling it a warning sign for Democrats to pay attention to the nuances of the Latino electorate. She advocates for tailoring messages to specific communities and working with staff and volunteers who represent those communities.
Hernandez shares her experience of working with young Latina women volunteers who felt connected to her campaign, emphasizing the importance of representation and inclusivity in politics. Despite the growing Republican voter base in the Central Valley, she believes that there is still room for Democrats to make a impact by engaging with communities and addressing their specific needs. The organization Battleground California also plans to use similar tactics to reach voters of color and tailor messages to specific communities.
The upcoming election in the Central Valley is expected to be closely contested, with Republicans like Valadao benefiting from the changing demographics in the region. The influence of former President Trump and the efforts to reach voters of color are seen as key factors in potentially securing Republican victories. The Latino community’s support for conservative candidates challenges traditional assumptions about their political leanings and highlights the importance of understanding the complexities of this electorate.
Overall, the political landscape in California’s Central Valley is shifting, with Republicans gaining ground and potentially securing victories in upcoming elections. Democrats are urged to pay attention to the nuances of the Latino electorate and engage with communities in a more targeted and inclusive manner. Representation and inclusivity are seen as crucial factors in winning over voters of color and shaping the outcomes of future elections in the region.
