China’s military encroachments on Taiwan have been on the rise, with actions such as boarding Taiwanese tourist boats and flying military aircraft closer to the island. Beijing’s goal is to create a new normal where these actions are accepted, similar to how they took over the South China Sea with similar tactics. The increased hostility from China began to gain attention after the visit to Taiwan by former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2023, but the strategy has been in place for some time. The aim is to push Taiwanese voters towards candidates who are more friendly to China, but recent elections have shown that Beijing’s attempts have been ineffective.
The incoming President of Taiwan, William Lai, has promised to maintain the policies of the previous administration, led by President Tsai Ing-wen. However, Beijing views Lai as a supporter of Taiwan independence, despite his attempts to backtrack on previous statements of support for independence. Many political experts predict that China will increase pressure on Taiwan as Lai takes office. In recent months, China has made changes to airspace rules around Taiwan, which has raised concerns about potential further escalations in the region.
China has been testing new leaders of enemy states in the past, and experts believe that China will test President Lai by creating a crisis around the time he takes office. The threats from China have escalated, with concerns about military hardware and propaganda efforts such as “brainwashing videos” and moves by internet influencers. The political situation in Taiwan is complicated, with some blaming local opposition parties for being too friendly to Beijing, while others criticize the ruling DPP for not being sincere in reaching out to China. Taiwan faces challenges from both external threats and domestic divisions.
The main opposition party in Taiwan, the Kuomintang (KMT), denies being China-friendly and instead claims to be peace-friendly. The KMT has had meetings with Chinese leaders, including current dictator Xi Jinping, raising concerns about potential closer ties between Taiwan and China. The ruling DPP, on the other hand, is content with the status quo of keeping Taiwan’s official name as the Republic of China. The KMT’s stance on a mutual respect consensus with China has been criticized as playing into Beijing’s goal of subjugating Taiwan.
Experts have differing views on the meetings between the KMT and China, with some arguing that dialogue is positive, while others see it as potentially leading to Taiwan’s acceptance as part of China. Given China’s goal of subjugating Taiwan, dialogue with mutual respect seems unlikely. The tensions between Taiwan and China continue to simmer, with concerns about potential military aggression from Beijing. As Taiwan navigates these challenges, there are calls for brave leadership and new solutions to address both external threats and internal divisions in the country.
