China, as the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has faced criticism for its slow progress in reducing emissions compared to other countries. However, recent analyses show that China is undergoing a rapid transformation in its energy sector. According to DNV, China’s electrical power is expected to shift from 30% renewables currently to 55% by 2035, and 88% by 2050. In 2022, China installed 40% of global solar and wind capacity, and this trend is predicted to continue through 2050.
The shift in China’s energy mix is evident in the data, with solar and wind projected to increase from 7% to 41% from 2030 to 2050, while fossil fuels are expected to decrease from 83% to 44%. Renewable electricity is set to rise from just above 51% in 2030 to 78% by 2050, while fossil-burning power plants will decrease from 46% to 24%. Despite these changes, natural gas consumption is expected to remain relatively stable.
China’s energy supply is also forecasted to peak by 2030 and decline by 20% from 2030 to 2050. This unexpected decrease is attributed to decarbonization efforts, improvements in energy efficiency, and a drop in population projected to occur by 2050. Although China aims for energy independence, it is predicted to continue significant oil and gas imports by 2050. Additionally, nuclear power is expected to double by 2050 but will still only account for around 5% of China’s electrical power.
Surprisingly, China’s carbon emissions are projected to peak by 2026 and decrease by 30% by 2040, with the country’s share of global emissions dropping from a third in 2023 to a fifth in 2050. This reduction is mainly due to displacing coal in power plants and other primary energy uses. While China is on track to meet its net-zero emissions goal by 2060, further decarbonization efforts in manufacturing may be necessary.
In conclusion, China’s energy transition is progressing rapidly, with significant decreases in fossil fuel use and carbon emissions expected by 2050. The country’s commitment to renewable energy and decarbonization efforts are crucial in achieving its climate goals and contributing to global emissions reductions. Despite previous criticisms, China’s evolving energy landscape demonstrates a significant shift towards sustainability and environmental responsibility.
