Recent polling averages show that if the 2024 election were held today, former President Donald Trump would likely defeat President Joe Biden in both the popular vote and the Electoral College. While Biden has seen some improvement in national and state-level polls, he continues to trail Trump in critical battleground states. Both Trump and Biden are polarizing figures, with polls indicating that they are unpopular with the majority of Americans. Trump currently holds a narrow lead in national polling and is also ahead of Biden in key battleground states, according to polling averages from FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Polling.
Presidential elections are determined by the Electoral College, where each state is allocated a certain number of electoral votes. A candidate must secure at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee victory. Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, as did former President George W. Bush in 2000. With most states leaning solidly towards either Republicans or Democrats, a few battleground states have significant influence in deciding the final outcome of the election.
According to recent polling averages, Trump holds leads over Biden in several critical battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump is ahead of Biden in Arizona by 3.6 points, in Georgia by 6.3 points, and in Michigan by 3.2 points. Although Nevada has historically voted Democratic, current polling averages show Trump leading Biden in the state. North Carolina, a state that has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 2008, also shows Trump with a lead over Biden.
The race is closer in Pennsylvania, where Trump is only leading by 1.1 percent according to FiveThirtyEight, while Real Clear Polling shows Biden slightly ahead. Similarly, Trump has a narrow lead over Biden in Wisconsin, a state that switched from voting for Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020. These battleground states will likely play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, with Trump currently holding an edge in most of them.
Overall, the polling averages suggest that Trump would have an advantage over Biden if the 2024 election were held today. While Biden has seen some improvement in his polling numbers, he continues to trail Trump in critical battleground states. With the Electoral College system in place, these swing states will have a significant impact on the final outcome of the election. Trump’s narrow leads in key battleground states indicate that he remains a formidable contender for the presidency in 2024.
