China is likely analyzing Iran’s failed attack on Israel as part of its preparation for a potential invasion of Taiwan. Experts believe that China will closely study how Israel and its allies were able to thwart the attack, which involved more than 300 drones and missiles launched by Iran. The high kill rate of the munitions by Israel and its allies indicates to China that the US and its allies have the technology to effectively defend against such attacks, posing a challenge for any potential invasion of Taiwan.
The tension between China and Taiwan has been escalating in recent years, with Taipei relying on US support in the event of any attack from China, which considers Taiwan as part of its territory. The US House of Representatives recently approved almost $61 billion in aid for Ukraine, including around $8 billion for security in the Indo-Pacific region, including Taiwan. However, there are concerns about the level of cooperation and interoperability among the pro-Taiwan alliance, as seen in the case of Israel and its allies working together to counter the Iranian attack.
Former commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence Mike Studeman has warned that Beijing appears to be on a “march to war,” as China continues to modernize its military at a rapid pace. Chinese President Xi Jingping has accelerated military milestones to 2027 from 2035 in order to modernize the military faster and have more options regarding Taiwan. Tensions between China and Taiwan have escalated following the Democratic Progressive Party’s victory in Taiwan’s 2024 presidential elections and military exercises conducted by China, including live-fire drills.
In August 2022, tensions escalated as China conducted military exercises over Taiwan after then-speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visited the island. This was followed by further military drills in April 2023 after then-president Tsai Ing-wen visited the US. China described these drills as a stern warning against the collusion between separatist forces. The situation between China and Taiwan remains tense, with China’s military modernization efforts and potential invasion plans being closely monitored by experts and allies of Taiwan.
Overall, China’s analysis of Iran’s failed attack on Israel provides insight into how it may approach a potential invasion of Taiwan. The high kill rate of the drones and missiles by Israel and its allies demonstrates the effectiveness of their defense systems, posing a challenge for China. Tensions between China and Taiwan have been on the rise, with the US providing support to Taiwan and concerns about the level of cooperation among allies. The situation remains volatile, with China’s military modernization efforts and aggressive actions raising concerns about the possibility of a conflict in the region.
