The shortage of ammunition and military equipment in Ukraine due to the struggle to resupply from the US and its allies is having a dire impact on the battlefield, with Russia intensifying attacks on Kyiv. The Ukrainian military is experiencing shortages in air defense munitions, making it vulnerable to Russian drones and missiles. Ukraine has been rationing its air defenses for about a month and has limited systems including Patriot systems and Soviet launchers firing western missiles like Sidewinders. NATO officials are concerned about the difficult battlefield situation and the need for additional air defense systems to be shared with Ukraine.
The US administration has not been able to secure supplemental funding from Congress to resupply Ukraine with the needed munitions. This lack of funding is resulting in quick depletion of air defense systems for Ukraine. NATO officials warn that Ukraine must make tough decisions on prioritizing their air defenses with the dwindling supply. Russia maintains a significant advantage over Ukraine in terms of munitions, manpower, and equipment. The ongoing advances by Russia are concerning given Ukraine’s shortages of artillery ammunition and frontline positions potentially not being resilient enough to fend off Russian attacks.
Although the situation is dire, Ukraine has had some successes, notably attacks on Russia’s energy sector. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries using long-range drones have imposed financial costs on Russia. Attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have caused disruptions to refinery capacity, leading to increased gasoline imports and domestic price stabilization by Russia. US officials have expressed misgivings over the attacks on Russian energy infrastructure but understand Ukraine’s need to fight with the resources available to them.
US and western officials recognize the low prospects for a significant breakthrough on either side of the war this year. Support for Ukraine through this period of attrition is critical, and options for long-term support are being considered. NATO is looking at establishing a fund of $100 billion over five years to support Ukraine and potentially taking over the leadership of the Ukraine Contact Defense Group. A stronger and more robust framework for long-term support of Ukraine is being discussed to make the country less dependent on ad hoc, voluntary announcements.
NATO officials are concerned about a potential major offensive by Russia in May or June and are looking to provide long-term support to Ukraine to counter this threat. The lack of funding for resupplying Ukraine with air defense systems and artillery ammunition is a significant challenge that needs to be addressed. The impact of Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure is notable, disrupting refinery capacity and impacting the Russian economy. While the situation remains difficult, efforts are being made to shore up support for Ukraine and prevent further Russian advances on the battlefield.
