Republicans in Virginia are hopeful that the state could shift from the Democratic column back into a battleground category where Donald Trump could potentially win. This hope was discussed between the former president and Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin in a recent meeting. The belief is based partly on a recent poll showing the presidential race tightening in Virginia and the fact that the state has a Republican governor and a state legislature narrowly controlled by Democrats. Republicans are seeing momentum on the ground in Virginia and feel that with Trump polling competitively with President Biden nationally, the commonwealth is winnable for Republicans.
In recent elections, signs indicate that Virginia is truly a battleground state. In 2021, Youngkin defeated former Gov. Terry McAuliffe by 2 points, a significant shift from when Biden carried the state by 10 points. Republicans also flipped a US House seat in the 2nd congressional district in 2022 and came close in the state’s 7th congressional district. Youngkin’s political action committee has been actively boosting Virginia Republicans, particularly focusing on the 2nd and 7th congressional seats. The PAC has collected a large amount of voter data and has been coordinating with the Trump campaign on data and targeting efforts.
While both Trump and Biden have not significantly spent in Virginia during the general election campaign, Democrats remain skeptical about Republican claims of a potential victory in Virginia. They argue that demographics favor Democrats in the region and that Trump’s involvement in the campaign could sway the outcome. Historically, Republicans have not won Virginia in a presidential election since 2004, but they dominated the state for 40 years prior to that. However, a veteran Virginia Republican strategist acknowledges the challenges faced by the GOP in the state, citing Trump’s previous loss to Biden by 10 points in the last general election.
Republican pollster Jim McLaughlin believes that Virginia, along with Minnesota and New Hampshire, could be battleground states in the upcoming election cycle. Trump has expressed interest in flipping these states, with a particular focus on Virginia. He has made claims about having won Minnesota in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, despite the results showing otherwise. Trump’s advisers have discussed the potential to compete in both Virginia and Minnesota at recent donor summits, but Virginia Republicans remain cautious about the party’s chances in the state. While some are optimistic, others believe that if Virginia is truly in play, it would result in a landslide victory.
