A recent poll of 500 registered Black voters in the swing states of Michigan and Pennsylvania shows that while fewer Black voters are planning to vote for President Joe Biden compared to 2020, former President Donald Trump has seen an increase in support among Black voters, surpassing his 2020 influence. Trump, who spent time in Detroit, a majority-Black city, is seeking to gain ground among Black voters who predominantly voted for Biden in the last election. In 2020, 92 percent of Black voters nationwide supported Biden, while Trump received less than 10 percent of Black voter support in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
According to the new poll, about 15 percent of Black voters in Michigan and 11 percent in Pennsylvania have pledged their support for Trump, compared to his lower support in the previous election. The majority of Black voters who do not want to support Biden are unlikely to turn to Trump on the ballot, instead preferring third-party candidates like Cornel West or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Nearly 15 percent of voters in both states expressed a preference for third-party candidates over Biden or Trump, with 14 percent of voters indicating they are undecided.
David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, noted that for every Black voter that turns to Trump, Biden would need to earn 13 more Black votes to compensate for the loss of support. Sixty-four percent of Michigan voters and 65 percent of Pennsylvania voters said Trump’s recent conviction on 34 felony counts following his hush money trial makes them less likely to support his presidency, while 9 percent and 5 percent respectively said they are more likely to support him.
The poll found that the most important issue to voters in both states is inflation/economy. Michigan and Pennsylvania are crucial swing states in elections, as the margin of victory can be quite narrow. In the 2020 election, Biden won just over 50 percent of the vote in both states. Aggregator polls from FiveThirtyEight show Trump leading Biden in both Michigan and Pennsylvania by small margins, as of the time of the poll. In the national election, Trump was leading Biden by 1.1 percent, with the first presidential debate of the cycle scheduled for June 27 and a second debate in September.
The former president insists that the criminal charges against him were politically motivated, and his legal team intends to appeal the verdict. Both the Biden and Trump campaigns were contacted for comment on the recent poll, but there was no immediate response. It is evident that Trump is making efforts to improve his standing among Black voters in key swing states, while the majority of Black voters continue to support Biden. The upcoming election will be closely watched as both candidates jockey for support in crucial swing states.
