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A recent poll conducted by Marquette Law School found that if former President Donald Trump is found guilty in his Manhattan hush money trial, he would lose the popular vote to President Joe Biden. Despite facing four criminal indictments and pleading not guilty, Trump is still in a tight race with Biden according to the polls. However, a conviction for Trump could change the dynamics of the race. The survey of 902 registered voters nationwide showed that 43 percent would vote for Biden if Trump is found guilty, while only 39 percent would choose Trump.

The U.S. employs an Electoral College voting process in which every state receives a certain number of electoral votes based on population. The nominee who wins the majority—270 votes—becomes the president. In the 2016 election, Trump won the Electoral College with 306 votes, but Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. The ongoing trial of Trump, who was indicted on 34 counts related to hush money paid to adult-film star Stormy Daniels, has garnered significant attention. Closing arguments in the trial are expected soon, and the outcome will show whether Trump becomes the first former president convicted of a crime.

According to a national YouGov/The Economist poll conducted in May, Trump is currently leading Biden by one point, with 41 percent support compared to Biden’s 40 percent. The poll also found that 45 percent of respondents believe Trump should be convicted in the hush money case, while 38 percent disagree. Trump has maintained his innocence and claimed that the charges against him are politically motivated. The outcome of the trial and the public perception of Trump’s guilt or innocence could significantly impact the upcoming presidential election.

The poll results indicate that if Trump is found not guilty in his trial, he would lead Biden by six points, with 44 percent of the vote compared to Biden’s 38 percent. Trump’s team declined to comment on the poll results when reached by Newsweek, while Biden’s campaign also chose not to comment. The survey showed that a significant portion of respondents had heard about Trump’s trial, illustrating the attention and interest surrounding the case. As the trial nears its conclusion with closing arguments scheduled for Tuesday, the public will soon learn whether Trump will be acquitted or convicted in his first criminal trial as a former president.

The dynamics of the upcoming presidential election could be significantly impacted by the outcome of Trump’s trial and public perception of his guilt or innocence. While the popular vote may show popular support for a nominee, the Electoral College ultimately decides the winner. Trump’s legal troubles, including multiple criminal indictments, have generated significant attention, with the latest poll showing a close race between him and Biden. As the trial nears its conclusion, the public eagerly awaits the verdict that could have far-reaching implications for the 2024 presidential election.

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