A recent Quinnipiac University poll revealed that President Biden’s slight lead over former President Trump has disappeared despite Trump’s ongoing criminal trial in New York City. The trial, related to 34 charges of falsifying business records, began last week with jury selection and has since moved into opening arguments with Trump pleading not guilty to all charges. The poll also indicated that the presidential race is now at a dead heat with Biden and Trump tied at 46% support. When independent presidential candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Dr. Cornel West, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein are included, Trump holds a one-point lead over Biden.
The numbers demonstrate a significant closing of the gap for Trump, who previously trailed Biden 48%-45% in Quinnipiac’s March poll. However, with the addition of Kennedy, West, and Stein, Trump is now in the lead. Biden’s job approval rating remains low at 35%, down from 37% in March, with 61% disapproving of his performance, an increase from 59% earlier. When it comes to the charges Trump is facing in his New York trial, 46% of respondents believe that he did something illegal, while 45% believe he did not. Additionally, 27% think he acted unethically but not illegally, and 18% believe he did nothing wrong.
In the event that Trump is convicted on the charges, 21% of participants stated they would be less likely to vote for him, 62% said it would not affect their vote, and 15% said they would be more likely to vote for him. Trump has been adamant in his defense, arguing that the trial is purely political and a form of “political persecution.” He maintains his innocence and has promised to “tell the truth” if he takes the stand. Trump has also contended that the trial is unfairly preventing him from campaigning, giving Biden an advantage. This marks the first time a former president is a defendant in a criminal trial.
Overall, the ongoing trial and its implications have not significantly impacted Trump’s support among voters, as the race remains close between him and Biden. The former president’s base appears to remain strong despite the legal challenges he faces. Biden’s job approval rating, however, has taken a hit, with more people expressing disapproval of his performance. The outcome of Trump’s trial could potentially sway some voters, with a portion indicating they would reconsider their support for him if convicted. As the 2024 campaign trail continues, both candidates are facing challenges and uncertainties that could influence the outcome of the next election.
