The Russian attack on Ukraine was not a “blitzkrieg” as Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted it to be. A year after its eruption, there is still complete mystery as to how it will end.
For now, experts expect it to continue.
Researcher Jon Alterman of the US Center for Strategic and International Studies says the war “certainly shows no sign of ending.” He adds, “Each side has a feeling that the period is favorable for it, and that laying down arms now would be a mistake.”
On the Russian side, the army, which recently scored some successes in the Donbass, may launch a major offensive in the spring. While in the Ukrainian camp, the desire to regain the occupied territories remains, with continued support from the United States and European Union countries.
French President Emmanuel Macron recently assured his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, of his “determination to accompany Ukraine towards victory.”
Possible “strategic victory” for Ukraine
Lianna Fix, an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, an American think-tank, doesn’t think there will be a victory for Russia nor a “total victory” for Ukraine this year.
And she stresses that Russia may have the ability to mobilize large numbers of new soldiers, but it will have to train them, feed them and provide them with equipment, which are things that the Russian army has failed to achieve so far, noting that the number is not what will make the difference as much as the quality.
She expects the Ukrainian army to make “some progress,” but she doubts its “total victory,” because the Russian president will never accept defeat. The type of weapons that will be delivered to Kiev will also be a decisive factor in the battle.
Dimitri Mennik, a researcher at the Russia Department of the French Institute of International Relations, believes that equipment such as long-range missiles can “allow the Ukrainian army to break this cycle of attack, counterattack, and defense, weaken the Russian ability to renew, and achieve a decisive victory.”
He also believes that there is a possibility of achieving a “strategic” victory for Kiev through “success in penetrating the Russian forces and separating their units in Zaporizhya.”
However, if Ukraine managed to bring the Russian army to its knees, and its forces advanced from Kherson (south), Moscow would not admit defeat, as the expert believes.
Moreover, he does not completely exclude the exhaustion of the Ukrainian armed forces, and the difficulty in obtaining various weapons.
swamp
“Every effort will be made, including endless mobilization and impoverishment of all Russian society if necessary, to preserve the occupied territories and continue this war,” adds Dmitry Minik.
This leads the researcher from the American Center for Strategic and International Studies, Jens Alterman, to believe that it is “too early” to say what the end of this war, which witnessed many unexpected developments, will look like. “I can imagine Russia exhausting the rest of the world and strengthening its progress,” he says, or the formation of a transitional government in Moscow that would end the war, or even the establishment of “some kind of armistice.”
However, for Liana Fex, the “most likely scenario” is continued focused battles. Ukraine may then become “a new Israel, but without nuclear weapons.”
In this scenario, the general balance of the conflict may not change or will change slightly, and Russia will continue to control Crimea (south) in particular, which it annexed in 2014, and Ukraine will continue to resist.
An unlikely peace plan
So far, neither side has shown any real willingness to negotiate an end to the war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed a 10-point peace plan, including Moscow’s assertion of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and the withdrawal of Russian forces.
And Dmitry Minik believes that “the only possible negotiating element in the eyes of the Kremlin, I think, is a temporary acceptance of an independent Ukraine led by pro-EU and NATO democrats, in return for recognizing the annexation of the regions that Russia controlled in Ukraine,” which is an unacceptable solution for Kiev.
Change in Moscow and nuclear dangers
In this conflict, there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding the nuclear threat. Fix notes that this threat was a “hoax” last year.
Nevertheless, Dmitry Minik continues, it will become “very dangerous” again if Ukraine regains Crimea. In such a scenario, the risk of a “revolution” in Russia would be “at its peak,” because of the fear of atomic weapons and their irreversible consequences, and because resorting to nuclear weapons would be tantamount to an admission of weakness on the part of the Kremlin.
Unwavering support from Westerners
In any case, the year 2023 could be a turning point in this struggle with the upcoming legislative elections in Ukraine, scheduled for October, and the presidential elections in 2024 in the United States. The necessary American support in this war is guaranteed this year, but a congressional vote on a new aid program is more and more uncertain, says Liana Fix, an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations, an American think tank. Fix concludes that at a time when European governments may be facing public discontent and political protest in the face of an endless war, Ukraine is doomed to make “significant progress” this year.
The Russian army, which recently scored some successes in the Donbass, may launch a major offensive in the spring. While in the Ukrainian camp, the desire to regain the occupied territories remains, with continued support from the United States and European Union countries.