During her time as the United States’ chief representative in Taiwan, Sandra Oudkirk emphasized the need to remain calm in the face of China’s aggressive language and actions while also acknowledging the risks involved. She highlighted the importance of finding a balance between not overreacting to provocations from Beijing and not becoming complacent about the dangers posed to Taiwan. As tensions between the United States and China continue to escalate, Taiwanese and American leaders are grappling with the best strategies to reduce the likelihood of conflict, including military purchases, diplomatic engagements, and cooperation with other democracies.
Despite China’s persistent claims of sovereignty over Taiwan and its ongoing military drills and airspace intrusions near the island, many Taiwanese citizens remain unfazed by the threats emanating from Beijing. There is a prevailing belief that the United States would intervene to prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, although not all Taiwanese politicians and voters share this conviction. The U.S. has committed to assisting Taiwan in its self-defense efforts and has the option of deploying forces if necessary to deter Chinese aggression. While some experts had previously speculated about a potential Chinese invasion by 2027, current Biden administration officials have not identified a definitive timeline for such action.
Over the past few years, China has ramped up its pressure campaign against Taiwan, culminating in extensive military exercises and increased rhetoric in response to events such as Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei and the election of Lai Ching-te as Taiwan’s president. Lai has expressed a desire to maintain Taiwan’s current status quo of self-rule without formally declaring independence, a stance vehemently opposed by Chinese officials. Beijing has accused Lai of advocating for Taiwan independence, which it views as a dangerous escalation that could lead to conflict in the Taiwan Strait. In response to China’s warnings and growing military capabilities, Taiwan and the United States have strengthened their cooperation, symbolized by the American Institute in Taiwan’s expanding presence and enhanced diplomatic ties.
The current director of the American Institute in Taiwan, Brent Christensen, emphasized the significant progress made in U.S.-Taiwan relations, which has been guided by both precedent and a willingness to move beyond previous restrictions. The Trump administration played a role in loosening some of these constraints, allowing for greater flexibility in engagements with Taiwan. Sandra Oudkirk cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a pivotal moment for Taiwan, prompting a shift in public attention toward the island’s security and the importance of bolstering ties with the United States. Taiwan has undertaken measures to strengthen its defense capabilities, including extending military conscription and acquiring advanced weapons systems to deter potential Chinese aggression.
Despite the deepening cooperation between Taiwan and the U.S., there is a subset of Taiwanese citizens who harbor skepticism toward American intentions and worry about unnecessarily provoking Beijing. This sentiment, known as “yi-mei-lun,” reflects concerns among certain voters that Taiwan’s alignment with the U.S. could escalate tensions with China. Sandra Oudkirk acknowledged the impact of Chinese information operations in amplifying doubts about U.S. support for Taiwan but stressed that skepticism is a natural aspect of democratic discourse. As she prepares to leave her post, Oudkirk reiterated the bipartisan consensus in the U.S. regarding its policy toward Taiwan, expressing confidence that the commitment to supporting the island nation would endure regardless of potential changes in leadership.
