A new study led by researchers at the White Rose universities of York and Leeds, as well as Oxford, Montreal, and ETH Switzerland, predicts that the boreal forest and treeless shrublands in Canada and Alaska will be severely impacted by climate change over the next 500 years. By running a climate model with different levels of carbon dioxide, the researchers explored how ecosystems across the planet could change up to the year 2500. This study is unique in that most climate prediction models only look to the year 2100, highlighting the need for longer-term projections to understand the full extent of climate change and its impacts on humans, animals, and plant life.
The boreal forest, which plays a crucial role in carbon storage and regulating climate, could face significant disruptions, along with tundra regions north of the forest. Already, new plant species are colonizing previously uninhabitable areas in the tundra as the planet warms. This shift could affect the planet’s ability to cool tropical heat, potentially making some of the hottest regions on Earth uninhabitable. As greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, drastic changes would have to be made to adapt to the new environmental conditions.
Researchers warn that as climate conditions change, we can expect to see more species migrating to adjust to the new environment. However, some species, particularly trees, migrate much slower than animals and humans, putting them at a higher risk of extinction. This slow migration rate could lead to the loss of entire ecosystems, threatening the survival of various species. Dr. Lyon emphasizes the importance of looking beyond current carbon emission targets and climate models to comprehend the long-term impacts of climate change and the need for adaptation.
The study underlines that the current boreal regions, which are colder and less populated, may become more attractive to human settlement as they warm. This influx of people into these regions could further strain ecosystems and species, exacerbating the challenges faced by wildlife. The scale of migration required to adapt to changing climatic conditions also highlights the need for global cooperation among nations. Given the current global conflicts and divisions, this cooperation might be one of the most significant barriers to successful climate adaptation, according to the researchers.
Dr. Bethany Allen from ETH Zurich stresses the urgent need to protect boreal forests and tundra biomes in the face of human-induced climate change. The study’s results suggest that large-scale geographic shifts in these biomes might be necessary to ensure their preservation over the next few hundred years. The researchers emphasize the importance of thinking ahead and planning for the potential world that our children and grandchildren will inherit. The study, published in the journal Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, was funded in part by the White Rose Collaboration Fund and the Leverhulme Trust via the Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity.
