President Joe Biden is facing increasing challenges six months into Israel’s war with Hamas, with the conflict having deep consequences for US domestic politics and weighing heavily on his reelection bid. The weekend revealed heightened geopolitical risks as US officials warned of a potential retaliatory attack by Iran after an Israeli strike on Iran’s embassy complex in Damascus, along with Israel’s plans to escalate on the northern border with Lebanon. Talks in Cairo will resume this week amidst international concern over the human toll of the war, with over 30,000 Palestinians killed.
US forces in the region and Israel are on high alert for possible attacks by Iran following the killing of two senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers in Damascus, attributed to Israel. The US and Israel are bracing for potential retaliation, which could lead to a larger Middle East conflict. Lower-grade clashes are already occurring in the region, with the US targeting Iranian clients in various countries while Israel faces increasing danger on its northern border with Hezbollah forces in Lebanon. The situation is described as an Iranian “octopus of terror” by Israel’s former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
Biden is currently at odds with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with the president pressuring Netanyahu to open new aid routes into Gaza following a high-stakes phone call. Israel announced a pullback from Gaza’s Khan Younis area after international backlash over the killing of seven aid workers, indicating a potential shift in US Gaza policy depending on civilian casualties. The humanitarian crisis is worsening, fueling criticism of both Israel and Biden and reaching a critical point, with dire warnings of famine and long-lasting medical effects on children.
Progressive, young, and Arab American voters are putting pressure on Biden, posing a risk to his reelection in key swing states. The ongoing conflict could lead to disruptions at the Democratic National Convention if still unresolved in August, creating a significant distraction for Biden. Calls for the US to rein in Israel and impose conditions on arms shipments are growing, adding to political tensions between the two countries. Additionally, criticism from Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, seeks to exploit the situation to undermine Biden’s leadership.
Biden’s phone call with Netanyahu marked a significant moment in his handling of the war, with the president demanding immediate actions from Israel, including opening humanitarian aid routes. However, disagreements remain over Israel’s planned incursion in Rafah, with the US opposing a ground operation and suggesting alternative approaches to address the Hamas threat. Despite Biden’s push for a ceasefire, Netanyahu’s determination to eliminate Hamas fighters could prolong the conflict, further straining relations between the US and Israel.
The lack of breakthroughs in ceasefire negotiations and the potential continuation of the war pose challenges for Democrats concerned about Biden’s electoral coalition. Calls for greater control over Netanyahu’s actions are increasing, with key Democrats like Sen. Chris Van Hollen expressing skepticism about sending more weapons to Israel without compliance with humanitarian aid and international law. Both Biden and Netanyahu face political pressure, with Netanyahu also facing internal challenges in Israel amidst mass protests against his handling of the war. Additionally, concerns about Iran’s involvement add complexity to the already delicate situation.
