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{Goldman Sachs} lowers its forecast for oil prices after the banking crisis


{Goldman Sachs} lowers its forecast for oil prices after the banking crisis

Monday – 28 Shaaban 1444 AH – 20 March 2023 AD Issue number [

London: «Asharq Al-Awsat»

The US investment bank, Goldman Sachs, lowered its forecast for oil prices this year, given that concerns about the banking sector and the possibility of a recession outweigh the increase in demand from China.
Bank analysts now expect Brent crude to reach $94 a barrel during the next 12 months, and $97 a barrel in the second half of 2024, compared to previous expectations that crude would reach $100 a barrel, according to Bloomberg news agency.
The bank said, in a note published yesterday: “Oil prices fell despite the increase in demand in China due to banking pressures, recession fears and the exodus of investor inflows.”
Global markets were affected last week, as the turmoil in the “Credit Suisse AG” group sparked panic in the markets.
Oil fell to its lowest level in 15 months, with Brent crude falling 12 percent last week, to below $73 a barrel.
After the price drop, the bank now expects OPEC producers to increase production only in the third quarter of 2024, compared to the second half of 2023 when Goldman had expected to increase production before the price slump.
For his part, Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani and OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al-Ghais stressed yesterday, Sunday, the importance of the producing countries’ commitment to the production cut agreement concluded by the OPEC Plus group.
Last October, the OPEC Plus alliance, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and producers outside it, including Russia, agreed to cut production by two million barrels per day.
And the “Iraqi News Agency” stated that Abdul-Ghani received Al-Ghais, and stressed during the meeting the importance of the role of OPEC Plus in the stability of global markets, and in achieving a balance between supply and demand.
The Iraqi Oil Minister said that Iraq is committed to maintaining the rate of 220,000 barrels per day, in line with OPEC Plus rates. Speaking during a conference in Baghdad, the minister added that Iraq is ready to increase its production if OPEC Plus decides to do so. “We forced some oil companies operating in the south to reduce production to be in line with the agreed OPEC Plus rates,” the minister said.
And the Iraqi Oil Minister announced, during his speech at the Baghdad Dialogue Conference, that his country intends to offer a round of licensing oil for fields in the west of the country, which includes more than 10 exploration blocks, mostly for gas. He added, “There will be another round of fields on the western side of Iraq, which extends from the Syrian, Jordanian and Saudi borders down to Samawah Governorate.”
The Iraqi minister said: «There are more than 10 promising exploratory blocks, most of which are invasive, and we are in the process of preparing and preparing a bag of information about these fields, and the time will not exceed the seventh month of this year, and this round will be announced». Abdul-Ghani indicated that Baghdad plans to implement large investments in the oil sector during the next five years, which, if completed, may “stop importing gas from Iran.”
The Iraqi minister confirmed that his country will offer the fifth complementary licensing round for oil within a period not exceeding a month, noting that Baghdad signed, in the fifth round, contracts for six exploration blocks in the east of the country, which are expected to provide no less than 750 million cubic feet of gas.
He added that his country imports more than half of its needs of gasoline, pointing out that the Karbala refinery, which has a capacity of 140 thousand barrels per day, will provide more than 50 to 60 percent of imported gasoline, in addition to kerosene and gasoline. The minister also confirmed that his country hopes to stop importing oil products by the end of this year.

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