A recent poll conducted by the Marquette Law School in Wisconsin shows former President Donald Trump leading President Biden by a two-point margin in a potential 2024 presidential election rematch. Among registered voters, Trump has 51% support compared to Biden’s 49%, while among likely voters, the lead remains the same at 51%-49%. When third-party and independent candidates are included, Trump maintains a slight lead over Biden, with Democrat-turned-independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 13%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3%, and independent progressive Cornell West at 2%.
Wisconsin, a crucial Midwestern battleground state that had been part of the Democratic ‘blue wall’ for many years, has seen shifts in recent elections. Eight years ago, Trump narrowly won the state over Hillary Clinton, and in 2020, Biden just managed to secure a victory over Trump. The poll data indicates a clear partisan divide, with Biden leading among Democrats and Trump among Republicans. Independents are leaning towards Trump, with 59% supporting him compared to 41% for Biden. Third-party candidates are also influencing the race, with Kennedy taking more votes from Republicans and Stein and West taking more votes from Democrats.
Enthusiasm for voting is another factor favoring Trump in the survey. Respondents who expressed strong enthusiasm for voting favored Trump over Biden by a margin of 59% to 41%. Trump recently campaigned in Wisconsin, and the state will play a critical role in determining the Senate majority in the upcoming elections. The poll also looked at the Senate race, showing Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leading Republican challenger Eric Hovde among registered voters but deadlocked at 50% among likely voters. The overall sampling error for the poll was plus or minus 4.8 percentage points, based on responses from 814 registered voters.
These polling results reflect the ongoing political dynamics in Wisconsin, a state that has seen significant shifts in support between parties in recent elections. With Trump currently holding a slight lead over Biden, the upcoming 2024 presidential election rematch in the state could be closely contested. The influence of third-party and independent candidates adds another layer of complexity to the race, with implications for both major parties. Enthusiasm among voters and recent campaign events also play a role in shaping the electoral landscape as Wisconsin remains a key battleground state for both presidential and Senate races.
