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Pension reform: imprecise economic benefits


Is the government playing secretive on pension reform? His project aims to restore the financial balance of pension schemes, taken as a whole, but it will have other effects, beyond this perimeter, on which the power in place hardly pours out. Several experts deplore this, seeing in it a lack of transparency that is detrimental to the quality of the debate.

Read also Article reserved for our subscribers Pensions: the difficult assessment of the effects of raising the legal age

At the heart of the controversy, there is the flagship measure which pushes back the legal retirement age from 62 to 64 while accelerating the application of the “Touraine law” of January 2014 on the extension of the duration of contribution to be entitled to the full rate. This dual mechanism will produce “powerful effects”as pointed out by Antoine Bozio, director of the Institute for Public Policy. “It acts as a ‘labour supply shock’, by maintaining on the job market an increased number of people available to exercise an activity, he develops. Ultimately, this stimulates growth and therefore generates tax revenue and additional contributions. »

The executive is, of course, aware of this data. It also appears in “Report on the objectives and effects of the pension reform project”, which is equivalent to an impact study made public on January 23. In the field of the pension system alone, the project should bring in 17.7 billion euros in gross savings in 2030 – i.e. without taking into account the expenditure planned elsewhere (revaluation of small pensions, etc.). If we widen the focal length to “all public finances”THE ” yield “ could be “even higher”. Of how many ? The answer is returned in a footnote which takes up three lines: according to a document from the Treasury Department of January 2022, “the increase in income excluding pensions” would be equal to 0.6 points of gross domestic product (GDP) after ten years, assuming that the legal retirement age is increased by two years.

Two distinct methods

The information is considered a bit meager by specialists in the field. “Surprisingly, in the impact study, there is almost no indication of the macroeconomic effects of raising the pensionable ageconfides Mr. Bozio. This omission is regrettable. » In a column recently published by The worldMichaël Zemmour, lecturer at the University of Paris-I, is even more severe: he finds that the report published on January 23 is “needy” And “lapidary”when it comes to estimating the consequences of the reform.

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