As tensions rise in the South China Sea, Beijing has warned that World War III could break out, particularly focusing on the Philippines. The United States has issued warnings to China, indicating readiness to use force to honor mutual defense obligations with the Philippines. China’s state-owned news outlet, China Daily, published an op-ed titled “Manila must be warned against horrors of war,” linking current tensions to those prior to World War I. The article cautions against triggering conflict, urging small states to be wary of the consequences. China has been harassing the Philippines over disputed fishing shoals, leading to tense standoffs between the two countries.
Recent near-clashes between the coast guards of China and the Philippines near the Second Thomas Shoal have raised concerns. China laid claim to the Scarborough Shoal in 2012, a move contested by the Philippines through a formal protest that resulted in a UN-backed tribunal ruling against China in 2016. China rejected the arbitration and its outcome, leading to further tensions in the region. To demonstrate fleet interoperability and show strength against China, the U.S., Japan, Australia, and the Philippines plan to conduct a joint naval exercise in the disputed territories. There are also plans for joint patrols in the region later this year.
China’s strategy of escalating and de-escalating pressure on neighboring countries like Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines has been noted by experts. Despite the mutual defense treaty between the U.S. and the Philippines, the Philippines remains the weakest militarily among these targets. Analysts suggest that the Philippines could be a potential flashpoint for a conflict with China, as tensions continue to rise. While not stating that a war will happen, experts warn that a conflict starting in the Philippines is more likely than in Taiwan or Japan due to certain elements being in place for a great power war to begin in the region.
The article by the Chinese expert for China Daily also highlights the dangers of war in the region, invoking the lessons of history to caution against conflict. He also criticizes Philippine politicians for stoking anti-China sentiment and potentially triggering a conflict that would result in innocent people in East and Southeast Asian countries becoming the biggest victims of war. Experts stress the importance of understanding the consequences of escalating tensions and the need for diplomacy to resolve disputes in the South China Sea. The ongoing territorial disputes and power dynamics in the region make it a volatile area that could potentially lead to larger conflicts if not resolved peacefully.
Given the continuous Chinese intrusions into Japan’s waters and the rising tensions in the region, there are concerns about the potential for a military conflict involving China. China’s actions in pressuring neighboring countries like the Philippines, Taiwan, and Japan have led to fears of a possible conflict breaking out in the region. The U.S.’s warnings to China and plans for joint military exercises with allies show a commitment to maintaining stability and deterring aggression in the region. However, the situation remains fragile, and diplomatic efforts will be crucial in preventing any escalation into a full-blown conflict. Developers of the content and the opinion expressed in the article suggest caution and emphasize the need for peaceful resolutions to the disputes in the South China Sea to avoid the risks of a devastating war.
