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First Minister Humza Yousaf of Scotland is facing a no-confidence vote after his decision to end a three-year power-sharing agreement that had made his Scottish National Party a minority government. Yousaf has refused to resign and has vowed to fight the vote of no-confidence. However, if he loses, it could lead to his stepping down and potentially trigger an early election in Scotland. The pressure on Yousaf has intensified since he ended the power-sharing agreement with the Greens over a clash on climate change policies.

The Scottish Conservatives have put forward a motion of no confidence in Yousaf as first minister, and other opposition parties, including the Greens and Labour, have expressed their intention to vote against him. Without the support of the Greens, Yousaf is two seats short of a majority in parliament. In order to survive, he may need the backing of a former SNP lawmaker, Ash Regan, who now belongs to a rival pro-independence party, Alba. Regan’s support could give the government at least 64 votes, potentially securing Yousaf’s position.

If Yousaf were to lose the vote of no confidence, ministers in the government would be required to resign immediately. The legislature in Edinburgh would then have 28 days to try to form a new government with majority support. If that is not possible, an early election would be triggered. Scottish Labour has expressed its intention to lodge a no-confidence vote next week, indicating that Yousaf’s position as first minister is increasingly untenable.

The SNP, which has been a dominant force in Scottish politics since 2007, has been rocked by recent developments, including the criminal charges brought against former leader Nicola Sturgeon’s husband, Peter Murrell. Amidst these challenges, the party is also facing stiff competition from Labour in Scotland as the U.K. general election approaches. Opinion polls show that the SNP is facing a tough battle for seats in the U.K. Parliament.

Yousaf’s decision to end the power-sharing agreement with the Greens has created political turmoil in Scotland, with the possibility of an early election looming. As Yousaf fights for his political survival, the outcome of the no-confidence vote will have significant implications for the future of the Scottish government. With opposition parties lining up against him, Yousaf’s ability to retain his position as first minister remains uncertain. The ongoing political crisis highlights the challenges and uncertainties facing Scotland’s political landscape as it navigates a period of instability and change.

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