The possibility of taking the matter to court for deliberation regarding the vacant Bersatu seats is considered to be a long and drawn-out process, with analysts estimating it could take a minimum of two years to go through the High Court, Court of Appeal, and Federal Court. Even if the courts were to declare the seats vacant, no by-election would have to be called as it would be less than two years until the expiration of parliament’s term in December 2027. Instead, the government plans to appoint a coordinator for the vacant seats and provide them with allocations.
In the event that by-elections do have to take place, political analysts predict that Perikatan Nasional (PN) may win seats in Jeli and Gua Musang in Kelantan but lose the Labuan seat in Sabah. The East Coast states are seen as still favoring the governing coalition. However, contested races are anticipated in Kuala Kangsar, Bukit Gantang, and Tanjong Karang, with a swing of Malay voters towards the current unity government as seen in recent by-elections.
According to UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, if the seats are declared vacant, Barisan Nasional (BN) is prepared to win back the six federal parliamentary seats to which they believe they have historical ties. This potential by-election could further highlight the rift within Perikatan Nasional, with the disobedience of seven Bersatu members leading to their expulsion from the party. This action would necessitate by-elections for five federal parliamentary seats and one assembly seat.
Political analyst Wong Chin Huat believes that the disobedience of the seven members to withdraw support for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim means that they have ceased to be members of Bersatu, necessitating by-elections for the affected seats. However, he notes that no by-elections would be required for Jeli and Gua Musang as their representatives were elected under PAS’s banner and not as members of Bersatu. This technicality also absolves them from the anti-party hopping law.
In the context of potential by-elections, there may be further tensions within PN as PAS could demand to contest seats previously won by Bersatu representatives. The party’s spiritual leader has expressed interest in potentially contesting these seats, which may strain relationships within the coalition. Amidst these political developments, the future of the vacant Bersatu seats remains uncertain, with potential legal battles and by-elections highlighting the complexities of Malaysia’s political landscape.
